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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-06-25T05:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-25T05:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31695/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption. The filament extended from approximately N15W55 to S30W15 on the disk, with liftoff seen starting around 2024-06-24T21:40Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 and 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-28T09:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-28T21:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.67 - 4.67
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Jun 27 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decayed to low levels this period. Region 3723 (S19E30,
Fai/beta-gamma-delta) the biggest region on the disk, produced the
largest event, a long-duration C6.2/Sf at 26/1530 UTC. Slight decay was
observed in the leading and trailing spots of this region. At 26/0012
UTC, Region 3727 (S18E46, Cso/beta) produced a C4.2 flare. A slight
increase in spot count was observed in this region. New Region 3729
(S03E65, Dso/beta) rotated around the E limb and was numbered.

Modeling of the CME, that was associated with the 35 degree filament
eruption centered near S19W58 that was observed lifting off at 24/2310
UTC, returned with flanking influences at Earth by late on 28 Jun.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Jun 27 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 27-Jun 29 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 27-Jun 29 2024

             Jun 27       Jun 28       Jun 29
00-03UT       2.00         2.00         4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       1.67         2.00         4.00     
06-09UT       1.33         1.33         2.67     
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         2.67     
12-15UT       2.67         1.33         2.00     
15-18UT       2.33         1.67         2.00     
18-21UT       2.00         3.33         1.67     
21-00UT       2.33         4.67 (G1)    2.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 28-29 Jun due to
CME arrivals from the event that left the Sun on 24 Jun.

Lead Time: 47.15 hour(s)
Difference: -11.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-06-26T10:00Z

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